Managerial Change in English Football

This research paper examines the impact of managerial change within the English football industry. The study's primary objective is to analyze the relationship between managerial changes and organizational performance across the four main English Football Leagues (EPL, Championship, League 1, and League 2). The research spans the period from 2000/01 to 2015/16, examining a significant dataset of 2,816 matches. Three theoretical frameworks – scapegoating theory, vicious-circle theory, and tenure and life-cycle theory – are used to interpret the findings, offering a comprehensive understanding of managerial changes in professional team sports. The paper aims to contribute to the existing literature by providing updated analysis for the period after 2000, and by exploring the relevance of these theoretical frameworks within the context of professional football, particularly the English leagues. The unique pressures and financial incentives within the English Football League system are crucial factors considered in this analysis. This research also attempts to address inconsistencies found in previous studies about the relationship between managerial changes and organisational performance.

The research employed a rigorous methodology to collect and analyze data related to managerial changes and their impact on team performance in the English Football Leagues. Data was meticulously gathered from the official websites of the English Premier League (EPL), English Football League (EFL), and the League Managers Association (LMA). The time frame covered fifteen seasons, from 2000/01 to 2015/16, encompassing the four professional leagues in England. The EPL consisted of 20 teams, while the Championship, League 1, and League 2 each comprised 24 teams. Importantly, the study focused exclusively on league performance data, excluding results from cup competitions, aiming for a consistent and focused analysis of league-based performance. The analysis utilized statistical methods such as independent t-tests, paired t-tests, and repeated measures ANOVAs, applying corrections like Bonferroni and Scheffé for confidence intervals. This quantitative approach enabled the researchers to identify significant differences in points per game and league positions before and after managerial changes across different leagues and within each league's top and bottom halves. The methodology followed a similar pattern to prior research but expanded it to include all four leagues and a longer duration of data.

The study's results indicated significant differences in points per game and league positions between teams that experienced managerial changes and those that did not. A key finding was that, generally, teams that changed managers did not accumulate as many points per game as teams that retained their managers, challenging the assumption that managerial changes always lead to performance improvement. However, a notable exception was found for clubs in the bottom half of the EPL where managerial changes correlated positively with improved results. This highlights the intense pressure and financial incentives associated with avoiding relegation in the EPL. The analysis of league position changes after managerial turnover showed inconsistent results across the leagues. While some leagues showed average improvements in league position following a managerial change, particularly for lower-placed teams, the EPL and Championship experienced a deterioration in league position for those teams that changed managers. The study's findings provide nuanced insights into the complexities of managerial change, suggesting that the impact varies depending on factors such as league, position within the league, and the overall short-term vs. long-term effects of changes.

The research findings were discussed in relation to the three theoretical frameworks: scapegoating theory, vicious-circle theory, and tenure and life-cycle theory. The high frequency of managerial changes, particularly in the lower leagues, lends some support to the scapegoating theory, where a manager becomes the target of blame for poor team performance. However, the lack of consistent improvement in points per game following changes suggests that replacing managers is not a guaranteed solution and might even contribute to a vicious cycle. The findings relating to improved performance in the lower half of the EPL after managerial changes point towards the need to weigh short-term benefits against long-term consequences. This aligns to some extent with the tenure and life-cycle theory, which proposes that new managers require adequate time to implement new strategies and improve performance. The differences observed across the four leagues and within each league's halves suggest the importance of considering the unique context and financial implications in any managerial decision. The results challenge a simplistic view of managerial change as a straightforward solution to performance problems and highlight the importance of a more nuanced approach that accounts for long-term consequences, league context, and the potentially detrimental effects of frequent turnover.

The scapegoating theory posits that managerial changes serve as a symbolic gesture to address poor organizational performance. In the high-pressure environment of professional football, fans and media exert significant influence, pressuring club executives to make managerial changes when results are unsatisfactory. However, the theory's limitations are acknowledged; Sakano and Lewin (1999) argue that scapegoating might not resolve underlying organizational issues, building on Khanna and Poulsen's (1995) research which suggests managers are rarely solely to blame for poor performance. The loss of firm-specific knowledge following a managerial change is also identified as a potential factor that could negatively impact performance, even after the change has been made. This highlights the complexity of simply replacing a manager as a solution to poor team performance, and suggests a more nuanced understanding of the underlying issues is needed.

The vicious-circle theory proposes that managerial changes can trigger a negative cycle, leading to further performance decline. The disruption caused by replacing a manager, particularly the loss of valuable firm-specific knowledge, can exacerbate the performance issues rather than solving them. This theory suggests that the initial problems that led to the managerial change are not necessarily addressed by the change itself. The resulting instability can have a detrimental effect on a team's performance. This perspective highlights the risks of managerial changes as a knee-jerk reaction to immediate problems; a deeper analysis of the underlying issues and a thoughtful, long-term strategy are needed instead of hasty solutions. The theory suggests that the act of removing the manager may not actually address the underlying problems that are contributing to poor performance.

In contrast to the previous two theories, the tenure and life-cycle theory suggests that new managers, given sufficient time, can positively impact long-term organizational performance. This approach posits that a new manager needs time to develop new processes, build a cohesive team, and implement a fresh strategy, leading to improvement over the long run. This necessitates a long-term perspective rather than a short-term fix, allowing for continuous learning and adaptation. However, criticisms of this theory exist; Hambrick and Fukutomi (1991) suggest that an inverted U-shaped relationship might exist between managerial tenure and performance, with performance potentially declining after an initial period of improvement. Other authors (Miller and Shamsie, 2001) propose that performance might peak after 8-10 years and then decline as the manager applies old solutions to new situations. Henderson, Miller, and Hambrick (2006) suggest that this pattern may depend on the industry. This illustrates the importance of considering a manager's experience and the industry's dynamics.

The paper emphasizes the unique characteristics of the football industry and the challenges of directly applying general business management theories. Koning (2003) highlights the clarity of objectives in football organizations, but this is countered by Carlsson-Wall, Kraus, and Messner (2016), who point out the need to balance multiple performance objectives in the modern football industry. The study directly investigates whether the three theoretical frameworks – scapegoating, vicious-circle, and tenure/life-cycle – are applicable and relevant to the context of professional football. The research considers the high frequency of managerial changes, often as a reaction to short-term results, and the financial costs associated with dismissing managers. The study explores the potential for both scapegoating and vicious-circle theories to explain the observed patterns in managerial changes, and the tension between the immediate need for results and the long-term benefits of allowing a manager sufficient time to implement changes. This underlines the need for a nuanced understanding of these theoretical frameworks in the context of professional football management.

The data for this study was sourced from three key official sources: the English Premier League (EPL) website, the English Football League (EFL) website, and the League Managers Association (LMA) website. This comprehensive approach ensured data accuracy and reliability. The timeframe for the study encompasses fifteen seasons of English football, from the 2000/01 season to the 2015/16 season, providing a substantial longitudinal perspective on managerial changes and their effects. During this period, the EPL consistently comprised 20 teams, having been reduced from 22 in 1995, and the three leagues below (Championship, League 1, and League 2) maintained 24 teams each following a league restructure in 1995. While the specific teams within each league fluctuated annually due to the promotion and relegation system, the consistent number of teams per league across most of the research period enabled more robust comparisons. It is vital to note that only league matches were considered; cup competitions and other non-league matches were excluded to ensure a consistent focus on the core research question.

The data collected focused on identifying managerial changes within each of the four English football leagues over the 15-year period. This involved tracking the instances of manager replacements throughout each season. For each instance of managerial change, data points relating to team performance were collected, both before and after the change. The key performance indicators (KPIs) included were points per game and final league position. These metrics provided a quantitative measure of team success and league standing. This data collection process aimed to capture the impact of a managerial change on the two most readily observable metrics of football team performance, and these are points per game and the team's finishing position in the league. This method provided a clear way to quantify the effect of managerial changes over time. The collected data enabled a comparative analysis to evaluate the effects of managerial changes across different leagues and teams' positions within their respective leagues (top vs. bottom half).

The collected data underwent rigorous statistical analysis to determine the impact of managerial changes on team performance. The methodology builds on and extends the previous work of Flint et al. (2014), expanding the scope from one league (the EPL) over 10 years to all four leagues over 15 years. This ensures the current study is a natural progression of the previous work. The analytical techniques employed include independent t-tests to compare the performance of teams that changed managers against those that did not. Paired t-tests examined changes in points per game and league position before and after managerial changes. To further analyze the effect on league position, the researchers calculated the difference between a team's league position at the time of the managerial change and their final league position. Independent t-tests were also used to compare these changes in league position between teams in the top and bottom halves of each league. Additionally, repeated measures one-way ANOVAs with Bonferroni correction for confidence interval adjustment and follow-up post-hoc tests with Scheffé correction were used to examine differences in points per game pre- and post-managerial changes for teams in different league positions. Follow-up paired t-tests were performed to further investigate significant differences identified by the ANOVA.

The initial analysis compared the performance of teams that underwent managerial changes with those that maintained the same manager. Across all four leagues (EPL, Championship, League 1, and League 2), a significant difference emerged. Teams that did not change managers consistently accumulated more points per game than those that did. This suggests that, generally, managerial stability is associated with better overall performance in terms of points accumulated. The study used independent t-tests to establish the statistical significance of this difference across all four leagues. The results, showing significantly higher points per game for teams without managerial changes, suggest that managerial turnover is not always a successful strategy for improved team performance, at least not in terms of total points.

A more nuanced analysis examined the change in points per game before and after managerial changes. While the overall comparison showed a negative correlation between managerial change and points per game, a significant exception was identified in League 1. In League 1, a statistically significant increase in points per game was observed after managerial changes, contrasting with the general trend across the other three leagues. This finding, confirmed using paired t-tests, highlights the importance of considering context-specific factors. This league-specific finding suggests that a simplistic assumption that managerial changes lead to an overall decline in performance might not be universally true. Factors specific to League 1 may have contributed to this unusual outcome and would require further investigation to understand these differences fully.

The analysis also investigated the performance differences between teams in the top and bottom halves of each league, separately examining the effect of managerial changes on points per game. Significant effects were found in the Championship and League 1, where comparisons were made of pre- versus post-managerial change points per game. Paired t-tests within these leagues revealed a significant difference in points per game between teams in the top and bottom halves only in League 1, with teams in the top half accumulating more points after a change than those in the bottom half. No such significant difference was found in the Championship. This analysis shows the varying impacts of managerial changes depending on the league and a team's position within the league. This suggests that the decision to change management may depend on the overall performance goals and circumstances of the club. The factors influencing this variability in points per game performance across league positions warrant further consideration.

The study examined how managerial changes affected a team's final league position. The analysis focused on the difference between a team's league position at the time of the change and their final league position. While in all four leagues, more teams in the bottom half changed managers, those teams in the bottom half generally improved their league position more than teams in the top half that changed managers. However, a contrasting trend was observed in the EPL and Championship, where teams in the bottom half saw a deterioration in their league position. Independent t-tests were used to compare the change in league position between top and bottom half teams. Statistically significant differences were identified in the Championship and League 2, but not in the EPL and League 1. These findings demonstrate that the impact of managerial changes on league standing is multifaceted, dependent on both the league and the team's initial position in the table. The results underline the complexity of predicting the consequences of managerial changes, especially considering the factors relating to positions within a league.

The findings confirm the widely held belief that the role of a football manager is characterized by chronic insecurity. The total number of managerial changes across all four leagues over the 15-year period was 525, translating to an average of 32.8 changes per season. This rate varied across leagues, with an average of 5.4 changes per season in the EPL, 9.4 in the Championship, 8.3 in League 1, and 9.7 in League 2. Despite the significantly higher financial rewards in the EPL, the data suggests that managerial positions in the lower leagues are less secure. This highlights the intense pressure and short-term focus often characterizing football management. The considerable differences in managerial turnover rates across the four leagues suggest that factors beyond simply financial incentives play a substantial role in the frequency of managerial changes. The perceived level of job security varies considerably despite the financial implications of being in the EPL, suggesting other factors influence the decision-making processes of club owners.

The research results confirm some previous studies that indicate a potential short-term performance boost following a managerial change. However, the overall findings reveal that teams who changed managers generally performed worse overall in terms of points per game and final league position. This contrasts with the short-term potential improvements sometimes observed, particularly in the EPL where the financial incentives for survival are significant. The study's results support findings by Rowe (2005) in the NHL, suggesting that giving managers more time can improve performance. This emphasizes the importance of a long-term strategic perspective in team management rather than a purely reactive approach. The overall decline in performance observed following managerial changes supports the limitations of viewing managerial changes as a quick fix, thus demonstrating the need for a long-term, strategic approach to team building and management.

The results offer partial support for the scapegoating theory in the context of the modern football industry's high-pressure environment. The high number of managerial changes seems to indicate a knee-jerk reaction to underperformance, driven by pressures from fans and the media. However, the lack of consistent performance improvement after managerial changes also supports the vicious-circle theory. The findings indicate that the combined impact of scapegoating and vicious-circle theories might be at play, implying a cycle of reactive decision-making that may ultimately hurt long-term performance. The significant improvement in performance observed among teams in the bottom half of the EPL following managerial changes underscores the immense financial pressure to avoid relegation in this top-tier league. This suggests that short-term gains are prioritized even at the risk of long-term instability. This highlights the crucial need to consider the overall club's financial situation and long-term goals when making a decision about changing managers.

This study offers valuable insights for football club boards, analysts, and stakeholders involved in the decision-making process of managerial changes. The research findings suggest that while short-term improvements are possible, there's limited evidence to support the overall effectiveness of changing managers as a long-term strategy to improve performance. The results suggest that a more holistic approach, considering factors beyond just points per game and league position, is needed. Future research could incorporate qualitative data to better understand factors such as fan perceptions, manager-owner relationships, and boardroom dynamics, all of which could significantly impact the decision to change management. This would enhance the existing quantitative analysis. Wagg's (2005, 2007) assertion that football club performance is not solely determined by the manager but by a broader range of factors should be considered for a more complete understanding of the complexity of managing a football club and highlights the need for future studies to include these broader factors in their analyses.